China Pacific Insurance (601601): Increase in agent productivity to ensure high business growth drives NBV to gradually turn positive
Investment Highlights: Event: China Pacific Insurance disclosed its 2019 Interim Report, and the company achieved net profit of 161.
800 million, a sharp increase of 96 in ten years.
1%; excluding taxes and fees48.
After the influence of a one-time adjustment of US $ 8.1 billion and other factors, the net value of non-attributed net profit increased by 38.
1%, performance is in line with expectations.
As of 1H19, the group’s embedded value reached 3651.
2 ppm, an increase of 8 from the end of the previous year.
6%; the remaining margin of life insurance reached 3154.
60,000 yuan, an increase of 10 over the end of last year.
The growth rate of new insurance increased in the second quarter, and the guaranteed business maintained rapid growth.
1H19 CPIC Life achieved NBV 149.
3 billion, the previous decade 8.
4%, of which the proportion of NBV in Q1 and Q2 is 60.
8%, the distribution of the business quarterly gradually balanced.
The decline in the new insurance business of the agent channel narrowed to -10.
1% (19Q1 is 13.
1%), with at least 16 business intervals.
1% (19Q1 is 18).
1%), the premium ratio of agent channels increased by one level.
In the first year of 1H19, the annualized premiums for the new business ranged slightly.
7%, of which traditional life insurance increased by 57.
0%, dividend level 58.
0%; new business value rate 39.
0%, falling by 2 every year.
Of which the traditional life insurance value rate is reduced by 6.
0%, the value ratio of dividend life insurance is reduced by 16.
The number of employees increased by 0, the structure of the agent team was optimized, and the per capita capacity increased steadily.
The average monthly manpower of the 1H19 agent team was 79.
60,000 people, down 11 every year.
0%, of which the core personnel team may be in an overall situation, with an average monthly healthy manpower and an average monthly excellent manpower of 30.
80,000 people, respectively temporarily suspended 9.
The structure of the agent team was optimized, and the average monthly healthy manpower and outstanding manpower accounted for 38 respectively.
1%, an increase of 0 compared with the same period last year.
; The production capacity level of agents continued to be optimized, and the average annual per capita insurance business income per month was 5,887 yuan, an increase of 5.
0%; monthly per capita commission income in the first year is 1,247 yuan, and it will increase by 2.
The comprehensive cost rate of property and casualty insurance is under stable control.
1H19 CPIC Property & Casualty achieved income of 682 from insurance business.
50,000 yuan, an increase of 12 in ten years.
5%; of which the growth rate of auto insurance business was 5.
2%, the growth rate of non-auto insurance business was 31.
4%; the proportion of non-vehicle business further increased4.
4%, of which agricultural insurance and health insurance increased by 48.
3%, agricultural insurance accounted for non-vehicle business increased 2.
Up to 17.
2%, has become the second largest type of property insurance.
CPIC P & C’s comprehensive cost ratio is reduced by 0 every year.
1 天津夜网 up to 98.
6%, of which the expense ratio decreased by 1.
4%, the payout ratio increased by 1.
2%; spin-off business, the overall cost ratio of auto insurance and non-vehicle business exceeded 0 respectively.
With drop 2.
In the non-vehicle business of China Property and Casualty Insurance, the cost ratio of liability insurance dropped significantly.
The proportion of equity increased, and investment income improved significantly.
The share of equity assets in 1H19 increased by 1 compared with the end of the previous year.
Up to 13.
7%, of which equity and equity funds accounted for 7.
4%, an increase of 1 from the end of last year.
; The corresponding fixed income assets decreased by 0 compared with the end of the previous year.
6%, of which bond investment accounted for a year-on-year decrease of 2%.
1H19 company realized annualized net investment yield4.
6%, increasing by 0 every year.
, Annualized total investment yield 4.
8%, 0 per year.
, Mainly driven by the upward movement of the equity market, the annualized net value increased by more than one year.
Up to 5.
9%, mainly from the floating profit of equity investment assets.
Investment suggestion: The annual NBV normalization target is still advancing, and we maintain the overweight rating.
With life insurance risks in place in the first quarter, the company’s new orders and NBV transition trends improved significantly in the second quarter. The 1H19 NBV decline narrowed to within -10% in line with expectations, and gradually promoted the realization of NBV normalization.
The company’s performance is in line with expectations, maintaining the company’s EPS forecast for 19-21 to 2.
At present, the company estimates that the corresponding PEV in 2019 is 0.
9 times, still at the low level of historical estimates, maintain the company’s overweight rating.
Risk warning: The sales volume of protection products is less than expected, the long-term interest rate is falling rapidly, and the capital market is changing rapidly.